Venturebent

There was a lot of buzz on twitter about Nick Crocker’s Tedx talk called “Floss the Teeth You Want to Keep”. As a personal development buff, I not only loved the talk, but also enjoyed seeing others people who are passionate about bettering themselves come out of the woodwork.

If you haven’t had a chance to watch it you need to asap. His talk focused on the process of change in the context of improving ourselves. I can’t hold a candle to the real thing so if you want a more in-depth description go watch it.

One section of his talk focused on 10 things that help make change easier. I thought it’d be fun to highlight some examples and ancillary web tools that can make putting these practices in action easier. I already use most of these tools in one way or another, but plan to incorporate these into my workflow as I pursue changes in different areas of my life.

A friend of mine recently invited me to join a google group called Really Think. Not only have I found it to be incredibly valuable, but it has got me thinking a lot about how certain applications provoke actions online that might have otherwise not occurred.

On the first of every month, members of the Really Think group send out questions/topics/issues to think about. The questions can be about anything you find thought-provoking. They’re often non-tech related which honestly amidst a sea of push notifications can be very refreshing. Examples of questions I’ve come across since joining the group are:

What is the best way to tackle the obesity epidemic in the United States?
Who is Your Idol?

After the questions are sent out, members are encouraged to share their thoughts amongst the group. In general, the group is intended to be a mechanism for members to actually make time to collect their thoughts around topics they’re interested in  and then engage in a healthy discussion.

At the core, Really Think helps me to do something that I’d like to do, but frequently fall short on. Sometimes I just have difficulty setting time aside to think about many things outside my immediate environment. I define my immediate environment by the people, places, conversations, tasks, and activities I encounter on a regular basis. The mountain of twitter links, 8 books I want to read, and growing to-do list just isn’t conducive to me consciously taking time to meditate on things that are so important, but rarely engage me directly.

At a higher level, this group is forcing me to do something that I want to do, but just don’t make time for. I want to periodically take an hour to think about how we can solve American obesity and who I should strive to model myself after…yet I rarely do. The main thing that prevents me from doing this is really permission more than anything else. That is, giving myself permission to forego the million things “I have to do”  and put time aside to think about these things which are usually far more important. In short, Really Think has removed a barrier that prevented me from doing something I’d like to do, but find reasons not to.

I think this is really powerful and many services have emulated the same effect across the web. My personal favorite is Quora. So many people set out to blog, yet either never do or write three posts and stop. They know they should, but they find reasons not to.

Quora removes many of the barriers to blogging. People can broadcast their thoughts in long form without having to worry about the setup, whether there will be an audience, or what they should write about. This allows Quora to capture activity and engagement online that might otherwise not exist. Its interesting that people mainly identify Quora as a question and answer site, but in many instances its more of a short-form blogging platform. I’d venture to guess that many heavy Quora users don’t have a blog.

I think there is a tremendous opportunity for services that remove barriers enabling us to accomplish things we typically find reasons to push aside. These services provide a ton of value to both users and their eco-systems alike. I’m anxious to see entrepreneurs build services with similar higher-level functions and would love to hear what other services are helping people accomplish things they might have otherwise fell short on.

Twitter has had a native URL shortener for some time, but it wasn’t until recently that they have begun automatically shortening URLs and link-wrapping those over 20 characters with a t.co URL. Alot of people are excited about these changes, including brands and media due to the condensed traffic source via the t.co link-wrapping. One service that has to be less thrilled about these changes is Bitly.

Bitly has been the dominate force amongst URL shorteners which has afforded them access to the real-time data kingdom. Sitting at the helm of real-time information sharing enables Bitly to derive incredible insights at both an aggregate and individual level. The applications to leveraging all the real-time data sharing on the web are endless, but one that particularly excites me is the ability to identify and understand broader web trends prior to anyone else. In short, I think the real opportunities for Bitly stretch far beyond link sharing analytics. But the amazing realm of opportunities Bitly possesses are entirely contingent upon the use of their URL shortener. So where does Bitly stand after the most recent changes? Let’s start with some questions.

Where is Bitly being used?

Bitly is used across many platforms which means that they have access to data extending beyond the Twitter eco-system. I’m sure Bitly points to this position as one reason they stand a chance as more and more platforms fill the holes they once occupied by integrating increasingly robust URL shorteners. And yes, the analytics services accompanying them will be here soon.

According to John Borthwick, last year less than 1% of Bitly links were being encoded on Twitter.com after their partnership ceased. I think this statistic misleads readers about how important the Twitter ecosystem is for Bitly. This statistic accounts for links that were being shortened on the site, not the total percentage of Bitly links being shared across the platform. What percentage of the Bitly pie are links shared on Twitter? From this, what percentage of users  were motivated to use Bitly out of pure convenience? I can’t find this information, but would love to know. If Twitter convenience truly does account for a large percentage of Bitly usage, they may be in some hot water…which leads me to my next question.

Who uses Bitly and why are they using it?

Bitly does two things really well on twitter – it enables me to squeeze a link within a tweet and provides rich analytics for tracking the interactions with that link. I expect that users that don’t care for the analytics will migrate to Twitter’s automatic URL shortener (t.co) because of its convenience. Conversely, Bitly users who derive value from the analytics will probably continue to use the service until Twitter reveals their analytics product. Whether these users choose to switch to Twitter’s native URL shortener once this becomes available will depend on a few things: how the product offering compares to Bitly, pricing, tracking habits across multiple platforms, and how intuitive the user experience is (people hate changing established workflows in the absence of a far superior offering).

But this begs the question – who is the demographic that is closely monitoring link analytics and doing so across multiple platforms? I’d venture a guess its primarily brands, online marketers/bloggers, and highly engaged tech adopters. To reiterate, in the near term I predict Bitly users who fall into these categories will continue to use the service, but I imagine that we will slowly see the more passive/social Twitter users move their native automatic shortener. For the record, I’m already a convert.

So where does this leave Bitly?

For starters, it means they must continue to innovate on their analytics offering because they have to assume that Twitter’s analytics package is on the horizon. Fortunately, they’re cross-platform…so they got that going for them. The less obvious question mark surrounds Bitly’s pulse on aggregate level trends.  As I mentioned earlier, their positioning at the beachhead of real-time information sharing enables them to derive insight into the real-time web’s broader trends. If the advent of Twitter’s automatic URL shortener does leave Bitly with a userbase composed mainly of brands, marketers, and techies, their aggregate data insight will be much less compelling; the pulse of often self-interested link publishers is likely different than that of the masses. Lastly, because Twitter is now indexing a large portion of Bitly URLs along with most others through the t.co wrapping, they have greater data sets to work with. Thus, they have the ability to offer superior data products solely for the Twitter platform. Did someone say monetization?

This post is full of assumptions, but it’s always fun to speculate. I strongly believe moving forward the company that holds the keys to the real-time data kingdom has the ability to power some incredible products far superior than link sharing analytics. These recent changes in Twitter’s URL shortener have definitely been a blow to Bitly. They must find ways to improve their product in order to retain the users who give them access to their critical mass of real-time data. Otherwise I fear they will only be a cross-platform analytics product who may never be able to seize their greatest opportunities.